Swearing In

Forwards revolved the luminous wheel

Yesterday (Tuesday, October 1, 2024) marked the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s sexenio - the name for the 6-year term that Mexico’s presidents serve. It therefore marked the beginning of Claudia Sheinbaum’s sexenio. Standing in front of the Chamber of Deputies in Mexico City’s Legislative Palace of San Lázaro, a presidential sash was handed from López Obrador to Ifigenia Martínez, president of the Chamber of Congress, to Sheinbaum. A row of female soldiers stood behind Sheinbaum during the ceremony that marked the beginning of Sheinbaum’s presidential term.

Sheinbaum gave a speech, because that’s what politicians do. The speech was on-script with Sheinbaum’s campaign and the principles of the Morena political party, largely reflecting a continuity with the policies of López Obrador: judicial reform and how it will strengthen Mexico’s courts; a continued investment in Mexico’s oil sector; investments in social programs; strengthening the military; etc.

In addition to the standard talking points of her predecessor, Sheinbaum also emphasized the strides Mexico has taken in gender equality - a fact bolstered by her very existence as the president of Mexico. She also re-affirmed her campaign promises about moving Mexico to a more sustainable and green energy policy, while at the same time vowing to increase Mexico’s oil production. She also asserted that she would address Mexico’s cartel problems by continuing López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” policy, rather than reverting to the full-on war on drug cartels of López Obrador’s predecessors.

An unenviable position

Sheinbaum takes office amidst a tide of issues confronting Mexico. A sampling:

• Mexico’s economy is slowing.

• The peso has recently experienced a sharp devaluation.

• A national deficit that is now about 6% of Mexico’s GDP.

• The debt-ridden national oil company, Pemex.

Hopefully her pragmatic and data-driven approach to governance - as opposed to López Obrador’s folksy, from the gut approach - will help her navigate at least some of these issues better than her predecessor could. But Mexico’s economic issues are undeniably formidable. The whole near-shoring dream has largely failed to materialize, and U.S.-Mexico relations have recently cooled (“paused”, as López Obrador puts it, because of the United States’ criticism of López Obrador’s judicial reforms), and will likely cool further if Donald Trump is elected president of the U.S. and attempts to make good on his promise to impose large tariffs on Mexican exports (Trump likely cannot make good on all of these promises as they would be illegal under the terms of the USMCA treaty).

But the most unenviable of Sheinbaum’s unenviable issues is - as it has been with so many of Mexico’s previous leaders - Mexico’s criminal organizations and the growing stranglehold they have over large swaths of Mexico. In a very pragmatic sense, Mexico’s national government only has influence and control over a subset of Mexico. So much of Mexico is beyond the government’s ability to control or protect: those areas are instead controlled by cartels, whose growing presence, influence, and inventory of illicit activities continue to drag Mexico into a social and economic spiral.

The recent outbreak of factional fighting within the Sinaloa cartel is just the latest example of how inept Mexico’s policies regarding criminal groups are. An unnamed Mexican army official recently stated that the Sinaloa war will end when the Sinaloa gang bosses decide to end it. This is not the rhetoric of a government institution that is “in control”. It is true that the pre-López Obrador policies of directly fighting the cartels was just as ineffective as López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” is. But the narrative that it must be one or the other is beyond reason: Mexico needs to explore new and different options for addressing the criminal activities that are destroying so many lives within and without Mexico, and Mexico’s leaders need to start articulating these options in a way that makes sense. So far, Sheinbaum has failed to articulate a cartel policy that makes sense.

High hopes

Following the formal inauguration ceremony at the Legislative Palace, Sheinbaum proceeded to Mexico City’s massive Zócalo and the National Palace where thousands of Mexicans awaited the chance to see their new presidenta in person. Banners and placards welcomed and celebrated Mexico’s first woman president. Confetti filled the air. Joy, hope, optimism for the future. This is the oil that lubricates the wheels of progress. Clearly, for Mexico, a transition was needed (helpful that it is constitutionally mandated). One hopes that the cheers of “Presidenta! Presidenta!” are followed by cheers for the efficacy of her sexenio.¹

1. “backwards revolved the luminous wheel” is the actual stolen quote reflected in this post’s subtitle, from Malcolm Lowry’s Mexico-based novel Under the Volcano. Lowry used this line as a device for moving the story backwards in time; I’m using it as a device for moving optimistically into the future and also as a device for absolving me of the difficult task of coming up with an original subtitle.